1399 sats \ 1 reply \ @k00b OP 22 Jan \ parent \ on: How to Fail mostly_harmless
This is really interesting actually. Let's say "something huge" has the exact same payoff in each case. If every day I take the 1% chance, I'd yield something huge in 100 days on average. If I take the 60% chance, 2 years on average.
There's definitely an optimum percent chance vs time spent proving it out. For shipping the MVP of a product from scratch, I'd say 4-8 weeks. For shipping the MVP of a major feature 2-4 weeks.
I started thinking about things this way after reading about Pieter Levels doing 12 startups in 12 months. He ended up with a hit in 4-5 months with nomadlist.
An independent source of validation that This is the Way is this quantity vs quality parable.
I love that parable. It's probably not 100% true for everything, but for creative production, in my experience, it is 100% true. I have lived it and seen others who have lived it longer, better, and it stays true and the returns keep getting bigger.
And yet there is this insidious force that, in many cases, pushes us back from this. It is bonkers to contemplate. I have lived that part, too.
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