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1856 sats \ 9 replies \ @anon 25 Jan \ on: Swan Bitcoin announces US mining business, with 750 BTC mined already news
I'm kind of with Odell, Swan seems to have irrationally high amounts of money available to invest, fund new ventures, etc that doesn't seem like it could be coming from their core business, and it isn't clear where else it might be coming from. I hope they are legit but it smells funky. Same thing most ignored about SBF, spending/investing way more money than made sense given public data. Will steer clear until dust settles.
As an employee I think I can share a little inside perspective that will hopefully dispel some of the skepticism here.
Three key points:
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Swan pays low. Employees get some equity but take home pay is not really competitive. This saves costs in terms of cashflow. People are still very eager to work here. I recall hearing a 100-to-1 rejection ratio for new positions. I can't personally speak to these numbers but I get a lot of people asking me how to get hired at Swan. This is clear and unassailable anecdotal proof.
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Swan has world class talent at shitposting. You might look at our social media presence and assume there is a massive media engine behind the scenes. But really, other than the talking heads it's just Cory and a few key players slinging memes all day in between their other duties. It really is incredible to watch them work. Again, this is a big cost savings.
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Swan actually has infinite sums of money. One time they direct deposited an extra mill into my bank account on pay day. I calmly alerted HR and they quickly and efficiently reversed the transaction. Everybody was very non-nonplussed. It was like correcting a simple arithmetic error. This was when I truly began to appreciate the infinite well of funding that Swan draws on. I wouldn't be surprised to learn that we actually have Satoshi on staff. Come to think of it...there are a lot of off-by-one errors in our codebase...🤔
Given the above three facts, I am frankly surprised they were so conservative with the bitcoin mining rollout. Maybe for the next business venture we'll start to really turn up the heat. 😉
Anyhoo, it's safe to say the mood over here at Swan is bullish. Hope this was helpful!
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I wish you the best. Many amazing bitcoiners who work at Swan. I don't think the average employee is bad. However there are highly suspicious numbers coming out of Swan that at the very least need clarification and supporting data.
Lets just take the roughest of rough numbers of what they likely spent in 2023:
- lets assume $150k all in cost per employee even with salary, health care, social security, etc. (this is laughably low for a predominantly American startup) x 110 employees (heard Cory say they have over 100 people) = $16,500,000
- $365,600,000 on mining capex
- lets assume a low number for electricity cost and again assume their fleet is S19s so $0.05 per kwh times 221k kwh per BTC mined(https://www.coingecko.com/research/publications/bitcoin-mining-cost and I'm even being generous and assuming highest end s19) * 750 BTC mined Swan has claimed = $8,287,500
- let's assume they are miraculously efficient with all of general and administrative costs and those amount to only $5,000,000
- Swan publicly said it invested over $200M in 2023, lets assume there is significant overlap with 1-4, even though they state "Swan has raised around $165 million in equity funding in 2023, with $125 million for private equity and venture investments." which would seem to imply little or no overlap, and just call this a cool $100M https://finance.yahoo.com/news/swan-raises-40-million-build-130000173.html
Total = $495,387,500 and again its likely higher, but I'm trying to guess low and be conservative.
Even if I want to make the most charitable case, Swan and Swan Mining are not disclosing they are mostly funded by totally unknown investors and keeping current investors in the dark. If you have the money just say who gave it to you. Even past investor Ten31 doesn't know how they could've gotten this much money, and more people keep emerging publicly saying their numbers don't seem to add up.
Bottom line: They are claiming they spent something on the order of half a billion in 2023, where did that come from? If they really did why not just explain? Don't trust, verify people
Disclosure: I am not a galaxy brain, I am a pleb making good faith best estimates. I would love for Swan to release official disclosures that prove me wrong, and then everyone can put this behind us.
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If I had half a billion I wouldn't tell you where I got it either.
Swan specializes in orange pilling HNW individuals and family offices. These are not plebs, they are experienced and knowledgeable about managing and growing true wealth. They are probably seeking exposure to bitoin equities in addition to bitcoin the asset. If you did 10 minutes of research you might realize that from an investing perspective Swan is the fastest horse in the race, and the gap is widening. Caution! Swan is aggressive!
It's not hard to imagine ample funding sources for a well connected team with a proven track record, if you don't outsource your thinking to podcasters.
As for all the fud, I think you hit the nail on the head right here.
funded by totally unknown investors and keeping current investors in the dark
You have been drawn into a spat between VC investors. My advice to you is simple: Don't be a tool. Do your own thinking.
btw Swan is hiring. 😉
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Now you're recruiting?? You didn't exactly give it a ringing endorsement with "Swan pays low."
But "One time they direct deposited an extra mill" makes me think your low and my low might be two different things 😉
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God tier troll right here 😂
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its very sus. but they dont hold a lot of customer funds afaik...so i dont think they are stealing customer funds. maybe they are putting some of max keisers capital to good use?
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