Over the last 16 years, US stocks have gained 407% vs. 85% for International stocks and 38% for Emerging Markets. This is the longest cycle of US outperformance that we’ve ever seen.
I think this is due to monetary policy of the US Dollar and us controlling and impacting the market as a back stop! Too big to fail! What do you think?
The world sees this and is joining the trade. The crash could be historic!
It will be the kind of crash that brings about an economic recession
#few
How will you protect yourself?
Bitcoin is my best bet.
Recession? That puts it mildly, try depression…and not the good kind. The kind where people suicide because they cannot afford to live or go hungry.
Don't be a doomer. In the long term optimists stay winning https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F_zStihXEAA280C?format=jpg&name=medium
One countries success doesn't have to come at the detriment of others.
would be curious to see the “international” segment leaders, are any of them higher or close to the US total returns number?
if not, i suspect the dollar is a good reason for US outperformance and imagine it will continue until the dollar’s status as a reserve currency changes.
Great question, I don’t have that breakdown, but it would be interesting to see!
It makes sense once you realize that the US's biggest export product is inflation. The consequence is that this is only going to get worse (for most of the world), not better (unless you're in the US)
migration crisis is the result of exporting inflation
border become porous
Ah this is great, never looked at it that way!
It's pretty nice getting to spend freshly printed dollars before they've lost their value.
lol Cantalon effect. Crazy we still talk about that to this day!
Basically, they are outperforming with inflationary $ system. 1$ is not the same 1$ 10 or 20 years ago. Stocks are keeping their value better than $. Yes, some of them are steadily growing but some of them just grows with the same rate as inflation. This creates a "magical" outperforming illusion. $ is not like Bitcoin. If we compare Bitcoin with stocks, we can see real growth.
Yup I’ve tried to tell my financial advisor this about some Investments and even my home value!
Reversion to the mean is real.
Yup 100% and if nothing changes, nothing changes!
It’s synthetic- the US floods the market with cash and that cash ultimately ends up in securities. It’s a ponzi that will end eventually.
Thanks for sharing! Great point, I never looked at it from that angle of the ponzi! When is eventually coming though? What will cause it?
IMO the interest on the debt (used to flood the system with cash) will become too great and lead to hyperinflation, then it collapses. This could take 10 years...or 100 years.
I know the timing gets tricky as they always seem to kick the can.
It's because the US companies are the biggest winner of globalisation.
There's very little that can stand up against big tech and mega companies that "exploit" the lesser restrictive nations' labour force.
Imagine global productivity being accumulated into these firms. Every nation prints, only a few accumulate.
And if you can’t beat em buy em right?
NVidia - on rise
Tech stocks on rise
Because anything that is scarce is on rise
more details - https://bit.ly/dollarhyperinflation
I'm glad the US has done well. It is one of the last bastions of freedom (while far from perfect) At least we are free enough to start our own businesses, own guns, practice our religion and raise our families in peace. Many things are wrong with our country but I don't know of a better one.
Forever Laura, new dollars have a preference to flow into the local market first to bid up assets, the rest just get a few hedging trades and then the increase in supply also reflects in the eurodollar market to bid up international assets
We definitely need a crash, but man I just don't see it happening