Just watched J Powell's speech and Q&A from today.

I am shocked, really.  The plane is about to crash and he's piloting it saying "We just need more data, maybe it won't crash."  

fiatbad

brandonsbytes

> I'm no expert, but it looks like they either need to keep the BTFP OR return to QE.  One of those things HAS to happen by March.

i think you’re onto something here

econ

New York Community Bancorp drops 40% as it cuts dividend, posts surprise loss

This is right after the Fed announced the end of the BTFP (the special money printer for banks program).

I'm no expert, but it looks like they either need to keep the BTFP OR return to QE.  One of those things HAS to happen by March.  

Am I wrong to believe that they will be forced to do one of those two things very soon?   ... and seeing as they just announced the end of BTFP, it sounds like they've already chosen which of the two paths they're going to take.  

However, markets do not seem to agree with me.  The market is only pricing in less than a 50% chance of rate cuts (and end of QT) in March.  Why?