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341 sats \ 3 replies \ @Undisciplined 1 Feb \ parent \ on: Prediction Markets Have an Elections Problem oracle
Now you're onto something. Whether you allow more type I or type II errors should depend on the costliness of each type of error. Oftentimes, the cost of subscribing to a false conspiracy theory is just looking silly, while ignoring a true conspiracy theory might come at a ruinous cost.
Now you're onto something. Whether you allow more type I or type II errors should depend on the costliness of each type of error.
That's true. However:
Oftentimes, the cost of subscribing to a false conspiracy theory is just looking silly, while ignoring a true conspiracy theory might come at a ruinous cost.
It's not a one-time game. There's a cost to crying wolf, or heeding the cry. The cost of endless conspiracy theories that you either promote or accept is that both your credibility and your discernment trend to zero, which hurts both you and the community in which you operate -- and possibly the world, if you want to really get serious.
The damage done to btc adoption by having its most prominent and loudest voices be a mental landfill of extremism, midwit pseudo-intellectual blathering, and aggression, is hard to understate. If you think btc is an important thing for the world, then setting adoption back a decade by these folks being the public face of it [1] should make you upset.
[1] Of course the public face is always in the process of shifting. But this was true for a long time and is still significantly true.
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All valid points and I didn't say anything about how you should be probability weighting when updating/forming opinions too. So, any utterly preposterous theories should be rejected regardless of how costly they'd be if true.
I was more thinking about competing explanations that have similar levels of plausibility.
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The damage done to btc adoption by having its most prominent and loudest voices be a mental landfill of extremism, midwit pseudo-intellectual blathering, and aggression, is hard to understate. If you think btc is an important thing for the world, then setting adoption back a decade by these folks being the public face of it [1] should make you upset.
Yeah, I think these public figures totally ignore that you have to meet people where they are if you really want to convince them.
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