Does commercial real estate vacancy pose a significant threat to the strength of the US economy?
Banks that created a lot of loans for these buildings will certainly suffer and will require another bailout. Further pensions fund and the insurance industry are invested in real estate, too. The value that is currently in the books will have to be corrected and will wipe out a lot of capital. The whole world will be affected once again.
1 sat \ 1 reply \ @kr OP 6 Feb
do you expect this outcome to be more or less systemic than the 2008 financial crisis?
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @dgy 7 Feb
I guess they will try to curtail it as long as possible but a black swan will eventually slip through somewhere. At a the later stage it will also affect residential real state prices near commercial hubs as with remote work commuter distance will not be that important anymore. This effect however may be locally balanced out with migration.
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