I think it is just a matter of the duration of time it takes for rates and occupancy changes to flow through this sector. A lot of commercial property holders would have refinanced at the peak when rates were near zero. We are probably getting a confluence of events now where the property owners need to refinance again but at a much higher rate and the property values have been declining over the term of the loan because as leases rolled off and weren't renewing or demanding smaller spaces.

I had a customer that was a tech company (I wouldn't say a start up but they were a young company/VC funded) that had taken a 10 year lease on 30k sqft of office space in 2018. Because it was 10 years they wanted about triple the space they needed because they planned to triple their staff over that time period. Standard practice in tech, get a bunch of VC money, spend it frivolously to try to get hyper growth so you can raise another round at a significantly higher valuation and repeat. Anyways, these guys went from 150 staff in a giant space, down to 15 people working there daily and the rest working from home post pandemic. They had so much unused space and were paying a fortune for it. They used to let me use their meeting rooms for free to have meetings with clients of my business because they were completely unused and they were hoping maybe to get a bit of word of mouth going amongst small businesses that they had some office space available to rent. They essentially tried to become a we work within their own office and last I heard they were trying to find a way to break their lease.