The economy seems to be heading for a massive downturn bottoming out around 2030 within a decade of massive and rapid changes and shifts.
It’s all about “cycles” and the natural need of restructuring systems:
Kitchin cycle (3–5 years)
Juglar cycle (7–11 years)
Kuznets swing (15–25 years)
Kondratiev wave (45–60 years)
To thrive in this period of rapid change you need:
creativity
forward-thinking
long-term preparation
empathy
the privilege to remain flexible
resilience
a good people network
Think big in vision but start implementing changes now in small practical steps. Build the future you dream by starting off today - position yourself for the long game.
It's a marathon requiring clarity, discipline and consistency. Don’t give up. it’s only those you will never stop trying that will be transferred to the other side. All the rest will go with the flow; like dead fish.
Key socio-shifts underway are:
decoupling time from money
reimagining work
reimagine income
Most of today’s jobs will be just tasks next to transformative AI agents.
Prominent themes will be:
populism
significant digitization of identity/income/governance
All these will be heading to increased centralised technocracy and if not stopped precisely to techno-communism.
There will be another black swan event. That event will force people to obey and demand order. Ordo ab Chao.
Key Milestones to expect:
digital ID rollouts
trialing of universal basic income (UBI)
increased automation and digitisation across all industries
As life and living are moving more and online, the most critical issues in the years to come will be around data privacy.
The next few years of change till 2030 will see massive compounding effects in society and technology. To navigate the turbulence of the times ahead people will need a long-term vision and to be able to maintain flexibility and foresight will be critical.
Many of today’s corporations will be extinct. Many of today’s norms will be forgotten and replaced by new. Generations Alpha and Meta will look back to today and wonder how could such a world could even existed.
The Bitcoin block reward continuing to halve on schedule is a key factor to consider. With the block reward projected to reach 0.78125 BTC in 2032, accumulating Bitcoin now while the price is around $50k could prove tremendously valuable in the future. Target to own at least a quarter of BTC.
50,000 USD today gives us 10 minutes of the entire world's mining power in 2032; this is an eye-opener. As Bitcoin continues to become more scarce over time while demand rises, the value and power of what can be purchased with a set amount of Bitcoin will likely grow exponentially.
Everything moves exponentially thanks to the side effects of Large and Small Language models.
The cost of intelligence will fall the cost of creativity will raise!
Simply doing what has worked in the past is no longer enough. Question old assumptions and experiment with new ideas.
Though change can be difficult, those who embrace it with optimism and vision will be the ones to shape the future.
The opportunities are boundless for those with the courage to reinvent themselves.
6 years from now, we are in 2030.
3rd decade is about to end and 4th is about to start.
#bitcoin block reward is 156.25 Million Sats, thats a quarter compared to now.
#Bitcoin Hash Rate might be in the range of 5-8 Zetta Hash (1 ZH = 1000 EH) .
Network mining be running on 150 - 200 GW of energy, Bitcoin will have achieved net zero emissions and even mitigating methane emissions from the traditional energy sources too.
Price of bitcoin may be more than $2 Million.
So what society would look like?
I imagine there will be many bitcoiners working to create more jobs and increasing bitcoin circular economy.
Fiat world will still look like high in debt, current global wealth of nearly $2000 Trillion would be around $5000 Trillion, Dollar is more worthless in 2030.
CBDC is in full force but larger and larger share of Economy now is in Bitcoin, Capturing may be 3-5% of the total wealth.
Vision Pro Glass may be everywhere which looks like clear Glass and we see ‘Ready Player One’ everywhere, largest social influencer may be an AI, who knows😃
we may see NOSTR being the part of many communication channel, Total trusted users may be around 50 Million by 2030 and total Bitcoin zapped will be around 100 Bitcoins
Fiat nations printing to infinity to buy as much #Bitcoin as possible, Real estate looks terrible.
One of the few big ETFs are about to be bailed out from the FED, they issued paper #Bitcoin and was able to suppress the price till now (the year is 2030)
We plebs have our #bitcoins in coldest cold storage and we are not ***** sell those
You do not sell your Bitcoin
Future is Hopeful.
We continue our journey towards “Everything Divided by 21 Million” in the coming years
Mainstream Adoption of Cryptocurrency: The integration of cryptocurrencies into the mainstream financial ecosystem marks a significant evolution in financial systems. A notable portion of retirement savings is now allocated to Bitcoin, prompting banks, pension funds, and financial advisors to actively engage in cryptocurrency trading and management. This has led to the development of sophisticated tools and services designed to manage crypto assets securely and efficiently, ensuring their deep integration within the financial landscape.
Innovation in Financial Products: In response to the increasing adoption of cryptocurrencies, the finance industry has innovated by creating new types of retirement funds, insurance products, and saving schemes that incorporate Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. These innovative financial products are tailored to address the volatility of crypto markets, offering strategies for hedging, risk management, and diversification to protect investments.
Regulatory Evolution: The regulatory framework surrounding cryptocurrencies has also evolved, with governments and financial regulators worldwide implementing comprehensive regulations for cryptocurrency taxation, anti-money laundering (AML) measures, and consumer protection. These regulations aim to secure investments while fostering innovation and stability in the financial markets, adapting to the new reality of digital currencies.
Economic Impacts
Increased Global Financial Inclusion: The rise of Bitcoin as a retirement staple has significantly boosted its adoption in regions with unstable currencies or underdeveloped financial systems, leading to increased global financial inclusion. This allows individuals in these areas to more fully participate in the global economy and secure their futures.
Shifts in Investment Dynamics: As cryptocurrencies begin to compete with traditional asset classes like stocks, bonds, and real estate, there are noticeable shifts in investment strategies. Investors and fund managers now require proficiency in analyzing cryptocurrency market movements in addition to traditional market analysis, adjusting their strategies accordingly.
Volatility and Risk Management: The inherent volatility of cryptocurrencies has necessitated the development of advanced risk management techniques. Financial advisors and investors have become adept at employing strategies such as dynamic rebalancing and using sophisticated algorithms to predict market trends, navigating the fluctuations with greater ease.
Societal and Global Changes
Shift in Savings Culture: The focus on cryptocurrencies in retirement planning has altered the culture around savings and investment. Digital literacy, including an understanding of blockchain technology and cryptocurrency markets, is now considered essential knowledge and is taught from an early age.
Decentralization and Empowerment: The shift towards decentralized currencies like Bitcoin has begun to alter power dynamics within the global financial system, potentially leading to a more equitable distribution of wealth. This decentralization reduces the influence of central banks and major financial institutions, empowering individuals and communities.
Geopolitical Shifts: Countries that embrace and integrate cryptocurrencies into their economies early on may gain significant advantages, becoming hubs for innovation and attracting talent and investment in technology and finance sectors. Conversely, those resistant to change may find themselves at a competitive disadvantage.
Environmental Considerations: The growing demand for Bitcoin and its integration into mainstream financial activities has raised concerns about the environmental impact of cryptocurrency mining. This has spurred a movement towards more sustainable practices within the industry, including the adoption of green energy solutions and the development of more energy-efficient consensus mechanisms than traditional proof-of-work.
This is the year 2024. Generative AI, green engineering, mental wellness, cloud computing, blockchain technology and the Lightning network are the popular trends these days and seem poised to change the way we work and live in the future.
With 6 years in the pipeline, 2030 will bring about some integration of technologies so as to alleviate the pressures of modern-day living.
Marriage of AI & Mental Health
With nuclear families getting smaller and kids having fewer socialisation opportunities, I foresee AI companies rushing to plug the social gaps to profit off this loneliness epidemic. I think personalised chatbots will be the norm, with people chatting with them as if they were friends in real life. I also believe that robots and virtual digital companions will be widespread in daily life. Rules of engagement involving human-robotic communications will become part and parcel of modern life. Kids may even prefer their robotic pals over their real-life friends.
Marriage of AI & Blockchain
With more sophisticated chips and softwares being developed, governments will increasingly turn to blockchain technology to make their operations faster and more effective. Already, the Singapore government is using the Ethereum blockchain to record the vaccination records of its citizens. With AI being incorporated, I foresee that more cross-collaboration between ministries can be fostered as it can be leveraged to solve big-picture problems and synergise work from various ministries. Hopefully this will make governance more coherent and cohesive.
Use of the Lightning Network
Given that on-chain transactions are often painfully expensive, I expect more merchants to adopt the Lightning Network as a form of payment. Part of it has to do with the maturing of the LN ecosystem. With more apps introduced and more wallets being launched, people find it easier to accumulate sats as well as store them under self-custody. The ease of getting sats helps prompt people to spend them because replacing them will be convenient. I expect either Microlancer to grow bigger in operations and accept more substantial jobs or a new startup that accepts sats as payment and rivals Fiverr in terms of operations.
Financial Systems Evolution
Economic Impacts
Societal and Global Changes