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Greenstockings’ efforts, however, proved irrelevant, for the course of the entire expedition was dramatically altered only a few days later. Flinders and Back were in the storage pod, retrieving the weekly provisions. Back was describing yet another accident he had survived. Flinders said that Back must have very good luck.

‘I don’t believe in luck,’ said Back.

‘My luck has always been very bad,’ said Flinders.

‘What do you mean?’ said Back. ‘I think most people would say you’ve done pretty well for yourself, seeing how successful you are, and all that.’

‘Exactly,’ said Flinders. ‘It’s terrible. All these things working out for me is the worst possible outcome. I need something to go wrong.’

‘You’re saying you have such good luck it’s a bad thing?’ said Back, incredulous.

‘It’s only when we’re just barely surviving that we are really living,’ said Flinders. ‘Being alive requires desperation.’

‘You lost me on that one, man’

‘Your own life is the perfect case!’ said Flinders. ‘Look at you, all these horrible things keep happening to you, and yet here you are, alive, thriving—you’re always happy.’

‘I don’t even believe in luck,’ said Back, smiling.

‘You should. But you don’t need to believe in it, I’ll prove it to you. Let’s flip a coin.’

‘How’re we supposed to do that?’

Flinders produced a dull-looking gold coin. ‘I’ll flip it, you call it, and it’ll be whatever side comes up when I catch it.’

Now, there are two versions of this tragedy, both of which I will here relate, in addition to a third version of my own construction.

The version related by Franklin in his published history of the expedition was that Flinders spontaneously combusted before he could catch the coin. The ensuing fire completely destroyed the storage pod, from which Back narrowly escaped.

The version that the crew communicated back to Earth in the immediate aftermath was that a meteorite pierced the walls of the storage pod, and punched a dinner-plate-sized hole in Flinders’ chest. The chamber immediately began to lose pressure. Back saw in an instant that Flinders was dead, and, due to his long experience with catastrophes, was able to get out of the pod before the pressure dropped low enough to trigger the emergency seals.

Now, this second version has long been the accepted history of Flinders’ death. However, I believe the circumstances point to yet a different story. It seems likely that it was the very coin flipped by Flinders that was responsible for all the subsequent tragedy. Flinders was unable to catch the coin before it was beyond his reach. The coin itself is what tore a hole in the wall of the ship, and led to all the other mayhem.