My main financial priorities are health and safety. Everything else I’m pretty happy sacrificing and I try to line these up with my wife.
e.g. I convinced my wife to get a more expensive flight to visit a sick friend, rather than take a red eye, and don’t sweat it. Convinced her to stay in a hotel, over a motel for safety. Also happy paying for my yoga membership. No car payments. No vacations. Minimal eating out.
How do you think about this stuff?
The standard advise is to:
I'd add the following:
I'm not following much on the logic of selling all your stuff ahead of time? What is the logic behind that? In a situation with high inflation you would want to keep the loans and any assets, especially if you have locked low interest rate.
If the fiat is quickly losing buying power, then the last thing you want is to get and hold fiat...
I honestly think recession fears are mostly overblown and caused by the constant negative media barrage to get more clicks/views...
Will we have a few bad months/years? Most definitely. Will Central Banks countersteer if things get too bad and open the infinite money valves again? Yeah, what other choice do they have?
The National Bureau of Economic Research dates recessions on a monthly basis back to 1854; according to their chronology, from 1854 to 1919, there were 16 cycles. The average recession lasted 22 months, and the average expansion 27. From 1919 to 1945, there were six cycles; recessions lasted an average 18 months and expansions for 35. From 1945 to 2001, and 10 cycles, recessions lasted an average 10 months and expansions an average of 57 months.
Bad months (ie recession) when economic fundamentals are this bad can runaway into depressions. You're kind of assuming we know how to avoid them because we haven't had one in our lifetimes - and we are primed for one IMO.
I agree though that money printing will resume eventually, but that just creates another problem. As inflation does, it will make the economy feel like it's growing - and many people will feel relieved, specifically asset owners - but it will accelerate wealth inequality. So then we'll need a treatment for that which is likely debt forgiveness and UBI, which will definitely lead to even more inflation.
Regardless, the fundamentals of the economy are in rough shape; it's inflation or recession and possibly depression. Either is nasty and requires caution for me because I run pretty lean financially.
Good point, I really cannot imagine a depression. Central banks have always intervened as long as I've been on this planet.
Yeah, the inflation ponzi can only go so far. Hopefully Bitcoin lives up to its role as a hedge against this scenario.
Agreed. Let's hope it doesn't get too bad.
Honestly I have no idea. I'm holding USD and waiting for an actual nose dive so I can swoop in and buy a house in cash / buy a bunch of BTC.
In terms of investments, I've had analysis paralysis and haven't done anything really.
Seems to be what Buffet advises when uncertain, but the cash ice cubes were melting a lot slower back when he was active.
I figure that even if inflation makes it worth less, I'm still likely to be holding more of it than most other people, which would make me a competitive buyer in that situation at least.
Yeah, I agree that holding cash looking six months out is wise. I just suspect other people are thinking that too, which makes me think it's unwise.
I'm reconfiguring my budget so that I'm much more consistent with it. I'm trying out the cash envelope method. When I need to do an online purchase, I have to make the effort to deposit the money first.
That's a neat idea. I have a friend that forces himself to record all of his spending in a google spreadsheet before he spends, which is a similar kind of friction.
Stay optimistic, and i'm with you on the health and safety! Problems are inevitable, problems are soluble.
take a loan using your btc as collateral when btc dip to 10k, hold on until next halving(2 years away) and profit.
Back testing this seems to work, but it’s only been 10+ years.
Holding mostly cash for now, also interested in stocks that will likely rebound after a newsworthy crash. Naturally I’m stacking sats as well.
Im also spending a lot of time learning about the lightning network. It feels like by the next bull cycle, new nodes will be mostly be managed by publicly traded companies, so establishing yourself as a contender early may keep you afloat much longer, similar to mining operations.
I agree health, safety, food security and rest are some of my highest priorities.
Living minimalist is something I do since more than 10yrs now, the recession strategy on my side is buying dividend yield stocks that will be around in 5 tot 10 years while stacking bitcoin.
All in on Bitcoin. Like a true, reckless psychopath. Eat grass for nutrition if it comes to that.
We all know tough times are ahead and fast approaching however I think of the community how strong it is now and how we can't be afraid to lean in on our community asking when neccessary and well compensating for service and or goods....tbh if everything does start to spiral and go crazy here soon then and you still panic then obviously you havent don't enough research and reading to understand 1 sat is 1 sat. :)
My main guiding is to remain as flexible as possible during times of uncertainty so now I'm always weighing every big decision against whether it improves or hinders mine and my immediate family's flexibility.
*guiding principle