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As the specter of economic downturn looms over the German and European construction industry, forecasts paint a grim picture for the housing sector. Projections from the Euroconstruct research group, affiliated with the esteemed Ifo Institute, suggest a significant downturn in housing completions by 2026, with Germany expected to experience a staggering 35% decrease compared to 2023.
Across Europe, the situation isn't much brighter, with a projected 13% decline in housing completions. This downturn is attributed largely to the exponential rise in construction and financing costs, rendering new residential construction increasingly unattainable.
Interesting. In the US residential real-estate supply is low but due to high interest rates (short term at least) prices haven't went insane. But my understanding is that if interest rates were lowered, and they will be that supply could not meet demand due to higher costs for construction materials as well as issues stemming from the global shutdown starting in 2020.
It could get really wild if interest rates are lowered and demand outpaces supply. Prices could go nuts again. I'm no expert but it seems like this could go several ways. I do think there is a lot of money to be made off of these events and there are smart people with resources that will capitalize on it. I also think there's gonna be a mess resulting from the market manipulation (interest rates).
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Right. What I am waiting for is a balance sheet crisis of the banks to go short EUR - long CHF
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once the EU real estate bubble pops, it’s the beginning of the domino… ⌛️
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It's popping. Prices in the green hell Germany already have fallen around 10-15%
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