Great post. First people often thing about this in absolutes like "It would take X hundred years to on-board every one", or "if we increase the blocksize no one will be able to run a node". People forget there was a time YT was terrible, you had to wait for videos to buffer, certainly the same users today could not use YT as it was back then. People would also wait weeks to get an album from torrents. My opinion is yes there will be a problem for people that want to own btc onchain. Many will also use custodial solutions mainly for LN and all these options will take pressure from the base chain, but i don't think it will be enough. The simple and obvious solution is to increase the blocksize, we can't just increase at will, but something like 2-5% each year if blocks are on average full. A bit like hashrate difficult adjustment. This would allow the on-boarding to bring more people in a phased manner. I can already hear the cries of "oh but then you won't be able to run a node in a raspi on the the mountains of Peru!" people must first own bitcoin before they think of running a node. Oh but less people will afford-a node is cheaper than a new cellphone, or a laptop, but the IBD-I used to way more than a moth for a movie and I can't wait for my node to sync? Oh but people in Africa - we are telling people to join and give their bitcoin to a group of custodians in a fedimint and they can't instead run a node for the whole community to use and keep their stack onchain? Node hardware is cheap and we have technology on our side that gives an edge, we also had a blocksize increase with segwit and it was no big deal. Oh and other argument, what about miners? They have to eat, security budget - shut up. That is shipcoins talk, there is no such thing as a security budget, miners are a free market that we can't control. But fees must be high-no they don't, bitcoin is a network, constant high fees are a sign that the network should increase to satisfy demand, with constant high fees the network responds like it's a spam attack and people get cut off, for the network to keep serving part of the requests. High fees should be temporary when there are spikes or attacks not constantly. At the end end of this it could take 100 years but anyone could still run a node and the base chain could accommodate most transactions because people would only need to do a couple of tx onchain a month, most of the activity would be on other layers. But people must be given the opportunity to hold onchain if they want to. End rant.
Thanks! I'm currently not in a position where I would want a blocksize increase, and I might never be. I wasn't involved in the Blocksize war, bitcoin was only a means to an end for me then. It's definitely a last resort kind of thing imo, I'd much rather try most other forms of scaling first. And I do believe total network fees do need to be high, but individual user fees do not.
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Total network fees high and individual low means higher volume of txs. All scaling solutions suffer if onchain fees are too high. There is no magic. Also with each new soft fork you increase complexity and new unintended consequences and attack vectors. The blocksize war was not about the size of the block, it was about control over the network. Either way I don't worry too much because if bitcoin gets to a point where fees are constantly high and pricing out everyone and making most utxos dust, even the ones against it now will ask for it.
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Yep, you've hit the nail on the head again.
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I do agree that it will probably require higher fees for longer for a real change to happen. One thing I would say though is that the blocksize war seemed to end with the majority of people realising we would scale in layers and not by increasing the Blocksize. We got lightning yes, but it is not the final solution as I said in the post. We need new ways to create and improve L2s in a trust minimised way.
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Finally! I am absolutely with you on that.
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