31 sats \ 6 replies \ @grayruby 1 Mar \ on: The Ultimate Purchasing Power of Bitcoin bitcoin
43B? That's some serious hyperinflation in the USD.
Bitcoin will be the last resort and forced by the people if it becomes the next global reserve currency. I think that is many decades down the road if it ever happens. However I do think over the next couple decades it becomes the premier reserve/collateral asset and starts to somewhat keep fiat in check or at least give people an alternative to fiat.
I typically work on the framework that it is worth 2.5M by 2035 and 5M by 2040-45. In today's dollars.
This is pretty spot on to my assumptions as well. I think we'll absolutely hit a minimum million or more per coin and flip gold, and Bitcoin will solidify itself as precisely what you said: the premier store of value. It's got so much more utility vs gold (i.e. you can send it across the world instantly or carry it across an international border in your head) so all it takes is for the world at large to come to understand that and start adopting it for that purpose.
This cycle alone could see as much as a 400K BTC by some estimates, and other estimates think that isn't bullish enough. I wonder if what we think of as a "Bitcoin cycle" won't smooth out a bit so we see less precipitous drops during the dormant cycle, and therefore a smoother and more constant uptick in price. Going into this halving at or close to the former ATH is already showing a deviation from the norm.
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I strongly suspect each cycle will be less volatile than the previous. It just makes sense that the underlying dynamics would be priced in more accurately as we get more experience with the asset.
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I'm not sure how to disentangle dollar depreciation from what he was talking about, but the 43B is not in units of the depreciated currency.
It was based on guessing what shares of the current stores of value will be absorbed by bitcoin and the assumptions weren't obviously preposterous.
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Since a large portion comes from absorbing the value fiat currently has as a store of value, the devaluation is implicit. So, maybe those should be considered to be 43B devalued dollars.
I was mostly following the logic, but some of the specifics probably slipped past.