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31 sats \ 1 reply \ @Voldemort 1 Mar \ on: The Ultimate Purchasing Power of Bitcoin bitcoin
The assumptions in that video are pretty wild. Maybe the biggest being countries will just move to bitcoin. I know people who hate the crypto world and were overjoyed when it crashed in 2022. They will never move to bitcoin. Give it 6 months and some new thing will take people's minds off inflation altogether.
These analyses ignore the fundamental drivers of value. Value is 100% a function of supply and demand, not some arbitrary ratio of how much bitcoin will replace the real estate market as a store of value (is the assumption people will sell their homes for bitcoin????)
For currencies, especially for those that are not tangible, demand is more a function of psychology than anything. Envy will alone will limit demand. Indeed, the people on the left who loathe crypto will not adopt it purely because it will make their opponents better off.
The possibility that BTC can go to zero will also forever be on people's minds. Even if that can happen with the dollar with bad policy, they trust the government to make sure it doesn't happen in their lifetime.
So, what will BTC be worth? I would be thrilled if it was $120-150k at some point in 2025, $300k-500k by 2030.
You're estimate is certainly closer to my own, but I think extreme scenarios can serve as a jumping off point for thinking about what's really going on.
The point about real estate isn't so much that people will sell their homes and buy bitcoin, but that real estate has a store of value premium priced into it, as do other assets like gold. As bitcoin is more prominently used as a store of value that premium will decrease.
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