I've been trying to figure out MSTR's valuation. You can't strictly compare their bitcoin holding to their market cap due to their USD debt load. As you mention, there's also the underlying value in their business. But there's no good way to square these three aspects. The best I've been able to do is cancel out their business income with the cost of servicing their debt, but that still assumes access to capital at current interest rates, etc..

In the end, it's basically a leveraged play on the price of bitcoin coupled with a short position on their effective real interest rate. Both of those are well positioned right now, but I think there are more factors at play - 61% of MSTR shares are held by institutions. These may be restricted in the types of investments they can make. Perhaps custodying their own bitcoin wasn't an option to them, nor the ETFs. In that case, buying the MSTR bonds may have been a unique opportunity that could result in an increased demand for MSTR beyond the underlying bitcoin price. My thinking is there must be more of these types of investors where MSTR is somehow their best option.

Beyond all of that, there's rampant speculation as well. Something like 21% of the MSTR shares available to trade are held short. This is actually down substantially from previous weeks. This active short squeeze is just another dimension to the puzzle, but it has definitely been boosting the share price.

Conclusion: I have no idea what Microstrategy's fair value really is.