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218 sats \ 2 replies \ @grayruby 14 Mar \ on: MicroStrategy’s Speculative Attack bitcoin
Market sell the 200k bitcoin the US gov has. All the leveraged longs will get liquidated. Etf holders will panic and start selling. Price probably drops 25-30% over the course of a few days. Shorts pile on. Eventually the market finds it's footing but it takes many months to stabilize and start moving upwards again. That won't stop Saylor from buying but it will slow down the speculative fervor that hasn't even really started yet.
Unfortunately for the powers that be you can only pull this lever once. You could try to dampen Bitcoin's move by selling more slowly but that doesn't have the same impact and create panic.
Good answer. I'm curious how much price movement that set of actions would induce. Like, if you punch the people who just got into the ETFs in the face really hard, how many of them spook? Seems like it would be a lot.
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I think there are three subsets of etf holders. People who already had bitcoin exposure who are adding bitcoin to their retirement accounts via ETFs. People who didn’t have bitcoin exposure until ETFs and Wall Street firms (hedge funds, large financial advisory firms, family offices). I think 1 and 3 won’t be easily shaken out but 2 would.
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