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This was brought up at Austin bitdevs last night. It's a really interesting way to create a prediction market for potential soft forks to Bitcoin without relying on centralized exchanges.
tl/dr:
  • Two people make a bet about whether a certain opcode will be activated.
  • Both put btc into a timelocked transaction.
  • The person who wants/believes the new opcode will be activated has the transaction pay to their address using the proposed opcode.
  • Other side of the bet has the transaction pay to their address using normal means.
  • At the time the timelock is reached, the bet is won by whichever path the money follows.
Now you have a publicly viewable way to generate reliable signal about how much people want a certain opcode to be adopted.
(It's a lot more complicated than this, so read the write up in the link, but I think I've got the rough idea of it. Also it's specific to the CTV proposals, but maybe you could generalize the concept.)
This is definitely a feature I would like to see working on Bitcoin. I think it has a lot of potential, only time will tell.
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CTV is what you want to see or the prediction market thing? If the latter, I think it can already be done.
I believe that this technique generalizes to any opcode that replaces an OP_NOP in P2WSH.
And it seems like it could be useful for any soft fork that proposes a new opcode.
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I was referring to prediction markets. As for CTV, I don't have enough knowledge to form a well informed opinion.
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