The Federal Reserve has opted to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 5.5%. Despite growing concerns over inflation and economic growth, the central bank remains steadfast in its commitment to its current monetary policy.
According to the latest projections from Fed officials, the median view of the Fed funds rate at the end of 2026 sits at 3.1%, slightly up from the previous estimate of 2.9%.
Furthermore, the Fed policymakers project end-2024 PCE inflation to remain at 2.4%, unchanged from December's projection, with core inflation seen at 2.6% compared to the previous estimate of 2.4%. This suggests that while inflationary pressures persist, they are not expected to escalate significantly in the near term.
In terms of economic growth, the 2024 GDP growth forecast has been revised upward to 2.1% from 1.4%, reflecting a more optimistic outlook for the economy. Additionally, the unemployment rate is projected to decline to 4.0% by the end of 2024, down from the previous estimate of 4.1%.
interpreting the most important message between the lines: the slow increase in the inflation outlook from 2.5% to 2.6% already indicates that the 2% target has actually been dropped. the immense mountain of debt can only be inflated away. this will be a dance on the tightrope for the central bank.
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