Tomorrow should bring with it a downward difficulty adjustment of ~5.4%, which will be the third consecutive downward adjustment and the fourth over the course of the last five difficulty epochs. Marking the longest streak of downward adjustments since this time last year when miners were forced to unplug and migrate out of China as quickly as possible.

The two indicators I am looking at to guage the pain are publicly traded miners bitcoin treasuries - are the holding or selling - and the price of ASICs. Over the course of the last two months publicly traded miners have sold tens of thousands of bitcoins to service debt and retain a cash runway for their businesses. At the same time, the price for ASICs as measured in dollars per terahash has been absolutely cratering. Reaching levels not seen since late 2020.

I am personally seeing top of the line machines being sold for $25-$30/TH this week. For context, these same caliber machines were selling for well over $100/TH right before the China ban and right around $100/TH last December when the dust created by the China ban settled. The price of ASICs is falling rapidly as miners who prefer not to sell bitcoin or don't have any to sell in the first place decide to sell their machines instead to cover expenses and debt obligations. There are currently tens of thousands of machines that have not even been opened yet sitting in warehouses across the United States.

We'll look back on late Summer 2022 as one of the best times in bitcoin's history to get into mining. If individuals or companies scoop up ASICs at these levels, are able to lock in reasonable electricity pricing, plug their machines in quickly, and the price of bitcoin recovers at some point later this year the amount of time it will take for these machines to ROI will be very short.