Despite all the talk of de-dollarization and the reduction of US government bonds in other central bank balance sheets, the sale of newly issued government bonds from America is not going badly. It is above all the European Central Bank that has made massive purchases of government bonds in the past in order to prevent the interest rate spread between US bonds and European bonds from widening too far and to prevent capital flight. With its massive debt policy, the US government is providing the global markets with the necessary liquidity (fislsldominance, soon to be followed by money printing to keep the flood liquid). It is as if this dominance game is going into the next round. Of course, this will potentially inflate all asset bubbles even bigger than before.
The reason for this is simple. Bonds fell in value when interest rates started rising. They'll do the mirror opposite when interest rates fall again. Bonds might rise in value when interest rates fall.
Investors don't plan on holding them to maturity. It's a trade with a 6 month to 2 year time horizon.
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For some you might be right but these bonds are being issued at a much higher interest rate compared to what we have seen the last 20 years so those who think inflation will fall back down to 2% like the Fed wants love these things because they get even better with age!
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You nearly got it. To make interest rates move You need the buy-sell-action first
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For those that do not know a huge reason why the US is issuing more is because a huge amount ($7.6 Trillion) in debt comes due or matures this year and the government has to offset this.
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The world is short treasuries? Ya don’t say?
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50 sats \ 1 reply \ @TomK OP 25 Mar
The world needs debt. More debt
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MOAR!!
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Short treasuries? i.e. go into debt to sell debt that that is payable in debt. It just doesn't seem like enough debt, that's only 3 layers deep.
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It needs to grow exponentially. Ukraine clearly didn't deliver what it promised. The green man soon is out of the game.
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Yeah, but that's terrifying - after co2, covid, ww3 lite - what crazy fucking thing will they try next?
Why don't they just say it: we want to steal everything you own to pay off our debts, then reset the system to one where you eat bugs and sleep in pods, and we stay in power with our private jets, yachts, and new born baby blood transfusions.
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50 sats \ 1 reply \ @TomK OP 26 Mar
You really want to wake up the sheep in their fiat dream idiot bubble? No, let them start some more wars.
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It's like they don't even comprehend that you can't do the ww1 playbook when nukes exist
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42 sats \ 1 reply \ @kr 25 Mar
narrative violation!
for a few months in 2022 this metric looked like it was headed down, interesting to zoom out and see the longer term trend.
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Incredible, isn't it? And who is buying state debt? CBs and commercial banks again and pension fonds like always. As if nothing happened the next liquidity cycle got started one year ago. I will not make a cynical comment on the importance of wars at this point as it seems highly unethical to me
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Does this really have any co-relation or an impact on Bitcoin? Also I don't think that you're writing this post while thinking about Bitcoin in the back of your mind. The talks of de-dollarization or no-fiat world are real and I won't be surprised if we first see the smaller and struggling fiats disappear in a matter of a few years from now.
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Until now Bitcoin is a highly correlated liquidity trade with less than 1% adoption. And the US markets are the most important provider of liquidity. Therefore it drives adoption. There is nothing more of importance for BTC than the USD fiat clown show so far. The rest is blabla in the twitter bubble
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Now I got it. Thanks, mate.
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No problem. I have 30 years of experience in the markets in my bones (besides the 25 in the media). Our youngsters (which will ride the horse home for sure) sometimes get lost in the euphoria which is good! Then it needs the old guys to step off the gas a bit... it's the reason why I don't like writing too much directly about btc: there is soooo much stuff circulating. Last thing I saw was this 'power law' hype. The next S2F.... nice. But only intellectual masturbation. You are doing a good job. Go on and have a nice day
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Amazing! Huge experience! I must say I have been learning alot from you. You're very much correct about BTC stuff being circulated a lot these days and there should be someone to tell the other related or unrelated content. Thanks. You're also doing a good job. Keep it doing.
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Thank You very much. I hope I can contribute something. The 'X' debate is a little overheated IMO. So SN is a good space
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good news for bitcoin
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Agree.
On the other hand, if this post was titled "US gov bonds are no longer selling", that would have also been good news from Bitcoin.
Whoever coined the phrase, "Everything is good for Bitcoin", was a prophet!
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Exactly. There is nothing more important than the USD fiat clown show for BTC so far
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Oh yes
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