60 sats \ 3 replies \ @TwoLargePizzas 27 Mar \ parent \ on: Bitcoin's Liquidity Situation bitcoin
This is true. The question is, at what price will people a part with their coins? The answer is different for everyone and for some people the answer is still never.
In some sense, these things are all connected. Presumably people buying the ETFs know the halving is coming. It's rarely one reason or another, it's the markets collective understanding of everything that causes them to decide to buy or sell.
I tend to think that miners might be the ones dumping right now to shore up money given the brutal time they have had the last couple of years esp with power prices. Its a big gamble to keep them until halving so it would make sense they are at least selling off part of their miner amount to set themselves up for the long term!
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Yep. There is data that supports what you're saying. The truth is the miners are just like everyone else with an additional incentive to sell to stay in business. Some of them sell more often and some try to hold on longer. There's no universal strategy.
The real kicker though is that the demand coming from the ETFs is a lot higher (some reports say 6x to 10x) more than what the miners are producing. The data shows most of the selling is actually still coming from GBTC but it's only a matter of time before they run out.