Kerrisdale Capital: Long BTC/Short MicroStrategywww.kerrisdalecap.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/MicroStrategy-MSTR.pdf
656 sats \ 11 comments \ @kr 28 Mar bitcoin
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301 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby 28 Mar
It's logical but in my opinion it's a stupid gamble. This will work if bitcoin consolidates or moves gradually upwards but if you get quick upward impulse you are going to get squeezed out due to high short interest in MSTR.
Fiat maxis playing fiat games.
It's another case of the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
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122 sats \ 0 replies \ @orthwyrm 29 Mar
I have no idea how to evaluate MSTR, although the focus on the premium is far too simplistic IMO.
Also these guys are clowns:
https://www.tipranks.com/experts/bloggers/kerrisdale-capital-management
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100 sats \ 0 replies \ @endothermicdev 28 Mar
I think MSTR is clearly overpriced right now, but assuming a bitcoin bull market, it could easily hit new highs over the next year even if the premium over NAV were to totally evaporate. I think this premium is something like 127% currently, which would mean $160K USD bitcoin would erase the premium.
It's a bold gamble they're making - even if they're equally long bitcoin they could still end up losing. They're basically trying to time the disappearance of market irrationality in the middle of a bull market! I wouldn't be able to sleep at night.
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12 sats \ 5 replies \ @0xbitcoiner 28 Mar
I haven't read everything, but from the first few paragraphs, I get the feeling that they are afraid that MS will go up further? Are they getting squeezed with their short position on MS?
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26 sats \ 0 replies \ @netstatic 28 Mar
Are they getting squeezed with their short position on MS?
Probably. Here's an excerpt from the pdf:
As of the original publication date of this document, investors should assume that the Authors are short shares of MSTR and stand to potentially realize gains in the event that the market valuation of the company’s common equity is lower than prior to the original publication date.
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26 sats \ 3 replies \ @kr OP 28 Mar
looks like MSTR is down more than 10% today
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35 sats \ 2 replies \ @kepford 28 Mar
MSTR is pretty volatile. Wonder if this drop is due to this paper?
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45 sats \ 1 reply \ @kr OP 28 Mar
i suspect it is
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33 sats \ 0 replies \ @SpaceHodler 28 Mar
A lot of shorts have stops just above 2k, Kerrisdale is playing games to avoid the squeeze.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @HardMoney 29 Mar
MSTR has GameStop like potential to squeeze in a short term sequence. The guy has declared his own funeral
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 28 Mar
https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1773348513335632019?s=46
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NASDAQ-MSTR/technicals/
MSTR is more volatile than bitcoin because of leverage.
I have both MSTR and BTC
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