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Eventually, the block rewards will be too low to support the energy costs and price of buying new mining equipment.
Most/all profits from mining will have to come from transaction fees.
This plays nicely into another hot topic: We should make blocks smaller to keep miner fees up!
The base layer should not be too cheap (to prevent spamming) and not be too expensive, lest no-one will use it at all and only do Lightning/Liquid/federations.
In a couple of years, we should have a block size scaling (to smaller blocks) that is flexible, like the difficulty is scaling right now.
Let's say that the current ±1,7 MiB block size limit that we currently have, is the maximum, but we want to aim for blocks having a total "mining reward" of 1 BTC.
  1. Every time the average mining reward of the last 2016 blocks falls below 1 BTC, we make blocks a corresponding % smaller.
  1. Every time the average mining reward of the last 2016 blocks rises to 1 BTC, we make blocks a corresponding % bigger (till we hit the current 1.8MB size).
The main reason to keep block small is decentralization. Decentralization is the first measure of bitcoin security.
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