Who's more likely to be wrong about the economy? The people or the data? \ stacker news ~econ

Who's more likely to be wrong about the economy? The people or the data?

2108 sats \ 10 comments \ @SimpleStacker 4 Apr econ

According to this WSJ article, the way people feel about the economy and about their personal finances is worse than things really are. The article backs this up with statistics and an interview with a Harvard economist. (No comment on how trustworthy statistics and Harvard economists are.)

So what does SN think? How's the U.S. economy doing and do the robust economic statistics paint an accurate picture? Is this a question about the average vs. the median, or is there something else going on?

-- What's wrong with the economy? It's you, not the data | WSJ https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/whats-wrong-with-the-economy-its-you-not-the-data-cfa911e6

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224 sats \ 2 replies \ @Bell_curve 4 Apr

Data because data can be manipulated

Economists are wrong about many things especially on how people think and feel.

Food prices are high. Gas prices are high. Housing is expensive. Credit card debt is high. People are tapping their retirement accounts.

The problem with economists is they are white collar professionals who can’t relate with blue collar families

33 sats \ 1 reply \ @siggy47 4 Apr

I was going to ask who's data.

85 sats \ 0 replies \ @SimpleStacker OP 4 Apr

Probably should've worded it: "which is more likely to be wrong"

100 sats \ 0 replies \ @kepford 4 Apr

Data is only information. It can be false or true but it can't tell you what will happen. The people interpreting data can be right or wrong. This sounds like "listen to the science".

I think the U.S. economy has been on a razor's edge since 2020 and I don't see that changing for some time. The real question is when will it crash. I don't think everything is fine. There are many problems that aren't being talked about by these so called experts.

43 sats \ 0 replies \ @StillStackinAfterAllTheseYears 4 Apr

Part of the problem is that "the economy" is a big bucket, and includes a lot things. The economy can be good in the sense that people's retirement accounts are increasing and bad in that their milk costs more than it did before. And usually it's a combination of a bunch of things. Also, of course, people can do well in bad economic times and go broke in times of prosperity.

20 sats \ 0 replies \ @Undisciplined 4 Apr

33 sats \ 2 replies \ @SimpleStacker OP 4 Apr

here's a quote from the article to illustrate the overall point the author's trying to make:

By more than 2-to-1 (56% to 25%), respondents said the economy had gotten worse rather than gotten better over the past two years. That is difficult to square with robust employment growth, unemployment near its lowest in half a century, or growth in gross domestic product, which actually accelerated last year.

Personally, I have my suspicions about the data. I also wonder if the supposed strength of the economy simply has to do with importing millions of immigrants and massive government spending.

As stackers should well know, not all spending is productive spending, yet even non-productive spending gets recorded in GDP figures and leads to employment.

43 sats \ 0 replies \ @jgbtc 4 Apr

The robust employment growth is just the rebound from the disastrous handling of covid.

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Bell_curve 5 Apr

0 sats \ 0 replies \ @Coinsreporter 5 Apr

Let's discuss data with data!