Complete exhaustion of the float by the US ETFs before anyone else gets a chance.

In the next 2 years, every country with its own markets will want to offer BTC ETF like vehicles. Its all getting eaten by BD Fink.

The US has a large first movers advantage by launching in early 2024. More and more sats are locked for decades in 401ks, and investment accounts. The ability to store sat (value) for decades in a tax advantaged way without excessive fees are making the difference here.

You can argue about the strength of the binding between an ETF claim and sats, but I posit that the public US markets have a very strong systemic binding here. I believe the day will come when people can redeeming ETF shares for UTXOs. I guess those UTXOs wont be less than 1 BTC.

But the rest of world needs a taste before its too late!