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IMO this is the decade where the jurisdictional arbitrage starts to develop and play out. This winter will be telling. Wealthy people in Western Europe and the rest of the EU will face frigid temperatures without reliable power, failing governments and essentially hyperinflation. It is only a matter of time before the EU crumbles.
If ECB raises rates, southern Europe goes bankrupt. If they don't, hyperinflation confirmed.
It is only a matter of time before they wake up from their socialist delusions and look for an escape valve. The clever and lucky ones will find Bitcoin as a way to leave with their wealth. It's just a question of where they go 🤔
jurisdictional arbitrage starts to develop
Interesting analogy. In finance arbitraging also normally means that differences get arbitraged away. This would mean that after a time there are no differences get smaller. 🤏🏻
This ultimately also means that peoples freedom of choices get smaller. That doesn't sound like a fun future to me at all.
I think it is a good thing when people have a choices in their personal mix of services and duties as a citizen. From nothing and nothing to everything and everything and everything in between.
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On your 1st point, absolutely the gaps narrow and a more level playing field develops. Not before it widens first to awaken most of us.
On freedoms becoming smaller, I would disagree. 'Governments' (city states, mini-sovereignties, communities or whichever new name they may become) should be incentivised to act in the interests of their people - like businesses treat customers today. People will gather around shared interests, not an arbitrary psuedo-nationality like we do today.
Therefore the theory is that MUCH more freedom will result not less. Given more economic resources are put outside the clutches of those demanding it and more into those that are offering a good value proposition.
It is a possibility that you're right - big tech authoritarianism could expand reach in the coming years - particularly if corrupt individuals remain at the helm of these fringe countries. However I tend to believe (along with the author that) the track-record for such authoritarianism enduring isn't so good, particularly not on such a grand scale.
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I agree that this winter will be telling for Europeans, including the U.K.
Decades of terrible policy decisions, the complete opposite of what you'd expect if you wanted to prevent this likely set of circumstances.
Also surprised we have not seen stricter capital controls just yet, but perhaps they believe they can keep a lid on it with looser enforcement.
The question of where to choose, seems to be limited to the least worst options 🤣 although my eyes are drawn most to Latin America at this time
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