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This seems somewhat absurd at a glance, but hear me out.
Changing the way the game is played is a certain kind of influence, but I am not considering influence more broadly. Certainly MJ had a vastly larger influence on basketball culture. Larry Bird and Magic Johnson brought in more viewers, and of course everyone yells "Kobe" when they shoot a balled up piece of paper into the garbage. All of those players might be more influential on a broader level, but none measure up to Dirk in how he changed the way the game is played.
A little background to illustrate the point: I was tall at a young age. 6'2 in 7th grade. I was not an uncoordinated, gangly tall kid though. I could dribble, I was fast, I could shoot threes, my one dribble pull up jump shot was my best move. I still dominate lunch games with it. Despite it being highly efficient, none of my coaches let me play that way. They saw a 6'2 middle schooler so they plopped me down on the block and had me post up. One time a coach I didn't play for told me he would bench me if I shot a three during a game.
This was the way people thought about basketball at the time. Several years later in HS, I hit 2 threes in a row and was taken out for taking bad shots. This is true despite only growing 1 more inch. But at a small high school, I was still one of the taller players on the team and supposed to be on the block. They only reluctantly let me play my mid range game.
This is not even remotely true anymore. The way the center position is played today is hardly recognizable from the 90s or even 00s. People will even make the argument that Shaq wouldn't be as successful in the league today because it is such a different position. Embid, Jokic, Towns, to name only a few, can all shoot threes. This transformation is due to Dirk Nowitzki demonstrating the value of big guys stretching the court. And not just as a role player like Rasheed Wallace (though Rasheed didn't really start shooting threes until people realized how exceptional Dirk was) or Okur, but as the franchise player.
The figure below shows how centers have changed the way they play. There is an enormous increase in threes attempted per games beginning around 2012-2013. This makes sense as it took a while for the next generation of centers to enter the league and dirk didn't get his ring until 2011. Guys like KG or Duncan weren't going to become three point shooters. As the next wave began to enter the league, it is apparent they were trained to play a different way than previous generations.
To illustrate this point even further, Zach Edey, a two-time national player of the year (I think) center is projected to be a late first round or early second round draft pick. If he played in the 70s- early 2000s, he would have most likely been a lottery pick if not first overall pick. The reason is because his game won't translate to the NBA. This is important because not only does not being able to play outside make you less valuable, but entire offensive systems are predicated on their bigs being able to shoot outside.
This is in opposition to Wemby. If he played in the 70s - early 2000s, he would have been plopped down on the block and been a slightly better Shawn Bradley.
To me, this means Dirk has changed the way the game is played more than anyone else. The entire philosophy around the role of big guys has changed. Offensive systems require that their bigs can shoot from outside. No one else has had this amount of impact on the way basketball is played.
Great post and hard to argue your points regarding Dirk changing the way the game is played by big men.
Who do think were the other trendsetters in basketball who changed the way the game was played? Who do you think changed the game at other positions?
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That is a good question. I think MJ in the sense that he showed you didn't need to build your team around a center. I don't think he necessarily changed how SGs play though.
Steph Curry for sure.
Vince Carter I think had a huge influence on the dunking side of things. His one dunk contest took it to the next level.
Maybe Magic and Bird?
I don't think any other C/PF is on my list as of now.
In general, I am trying to think of any shifts in a position and I am struggling to think of any. The game was played the same way for a long time and if you found a guy with certain talents you were happy to have them, but they weren't expected.
To @Undisciplined's point below, maybe Magic paved the way for guys like Pippen, Tayshaun Prince, Lebron, Durant, and other tall small forwards to play as facilitators. I think Bird probably had a similar influence.
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Magic, Bird, Curry definitely come to mind as well. Good point about Jordan changing the landscape for how teams were built even if he didn't change the position per se.
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I always think of Steph, but I think your case for Dirk somewhat undercuts Steph's significance in creating the 3-point revolution.
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Maybe but Steph changed the way teams thought about scoring and pretty much took the long 2 out of the game. Either get a high percentage shot close to the basket or take a 3.
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Steph wildly elevated the value of a certain type of player, but teams always had 3-point specialists who ran around off-ball.
What I'm wondering is whether emphasizing guys who play Steph's role has had a bigger impact on 3-point volume than the fact that every position shoots 3's now.
As a slight aside, do either of you have any idea why it took so long to realize that long two's were a low value shot? I feel like we figure that out as kids.
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I think Steph showed people that deep threes need not be considered a bad shot. I could be wrong, but I doubt Caitlin Clark is allowed to take logo threes several times a game if Steph didn't show it can be an effective shot.
The other part to this is based on the role of the big guys. Back in the day big guys on defense didn't have to worry about guarding the 3. This means SGs today can get to the rim easier and have less of a need for mid range.
This was really apparent watching Caitlin Clark during march madness. When she drove the bigs on the other team could stay down low making her shots around the rim really difficult. She doesn't have the best mid range game and it was telling.
So back in the day when you had Mutombo sitting around the rim it would be advantageous to shoot a pull up jump shot rather than attacking the hoop.
On the other hand, if someone drops in to help you can kick it. There is no reason to shoot a long 2 over a 3 on a drive and kick.
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50 sats \ 1 reply \ @grayruby 9 Apr
I think maybe because players had a lot more autonomy in shot selection than they do now. No one was going to tell Jordan or Kobe not to take a 2 a foot in front of the 3pt line even if they knew it wasn't a high value shot. I think players these days are more used to and receptive to all the data and analytics than players of earlier generations. Could you imagine some Yale grad calculating expected value for the Bulls front office telling Jordan where to shoot from?
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The hardest thing about watching old games to me is watching guys shoot with a foot on the line. I get feeling more comfortable from a step inside the arch, but that's different than just seeming completely indifferent to the extra point.
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Kukoc played small and power forward
Bill Laimbeer didn’t shoot 3 but was a great outside shooter. He would benefit from today’s style of play
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That was very interesting. I'm completely sold that Dirk isn't getting enough love in these legacy conversations. The post made me think about how Magic paved the way for forwards and bigs to be primary playmakers.
One of my best friends growing up was just like you (he's also very interested in economics). He played just like a modern wing and to this day I'm convinced he was good enough to go pro if he had the inclination or support to do so. He had the same issues, though, with coaches sticking him down in the post. He hated playing in the post and ultimately quit playing organized basketball.
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Damn I’m trying to think of a big before dirk that would shoot from outside a lot. Maybe Larry Bird?
But great post
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Bill Laimbeer was a center who shot from outside
Larry Bird for sure.
Toni Kukoc.
The 90s bulls didn’t have a low post scorer except for MJ
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this is actually interesting - because Dirk was initially supposed to be a small forward when he was drafted. However, in his second year, Dallas's PF had a season ending injury and Dirk was the only other guy on the team tall enough to fill the position.
I think if Dirk had not actually played PF his influence that I argue for would be less. The case isn't that he is the first tall guy who can shoot (though that is part of it because is over 7'0), but more so that he is the first C/F to play outside in a dominant fashion.
Bird was certainly tall and could shoot threes, but he was a small forward. Likewise for Peja, Rashard Lewis and a few others. Boston still had Parish and McHale as traditional big men down low. The kings had Vlade and Weber. Sonics big men were less consistent, but still they had two big guys banging around down low. In that sense, all these players were tall small forwards.
Maybe said differently, there were certainly players who are 6'8+ who shot threes and played before or at the same time as Dirk, but he was the first player to show that you don't need two traditional bigs to win games.
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He benefited from playing for a coach who employed unconventional tactics: Don Nelson
Nelson was an innovator who optimized Dirk’s strengths
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Yes absolutely. Don Nelson deserves a lot of credit for going against the grain. I thought it was a shame when they fired him. Came back to bite dallas in the ass next year in the playoffs.
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