0 sats \ 2 replies \ @nullcount 27 Jul 2022 \ parent \ on: LNBIG routed 12.4 BTC yesterday... how does that extrapolate to network volume? bitcoin
How do you know LNBIG isn't trolling. Why do you trust them and not me? What if I said I've established dozens of nodes with interconnected channels and zero routing fees. Then I set a script to automatically send the entire channel balance back and forth across my node. This is how I'm able to route 1 Billion BTC so fast. Do my nodes not count in your model?
I'm not giving credit to surveillance methods. They are also reading tea leaves.
Nothing wrong with making assumptions when building models. Just question your assumptions and realize how large your margin of error actually is.
If I claim there are hundreds of transactions per second but my margin of error could be in the hundreds of millions, how valuable is that claim?
There are flaws with any estimates...
I could spin up hundreds of nodes on the network - does that deterministically improve its usability? (no guarantees there)
I could open hundreds of channels to other nodes - but if they aren't being used then its like a highway to nowhere...not necessarily valuable
I could loads hundreds of BTC onto my node to add capacity - but unless its being deployed efficiently it is again of no use to the network
And yes I could spin up a few nodes and route payments back and forth all day to myself, boosting my volume numbers, but again doing nothing in real value for the network.
All of these numbers, and especially any non verifiable data must be looked at with a large grain of salt, and combined with other data to make any sort of useful extrapolations as to how valuable or successful growth has been.
This whole post is just one estimate - and I appreciate that yes this model could be wildly off and the data and its interpretation inconclusive of anything valuable.
But does that mean no one should ever do any analysis - or that this is "surveillance"? At some point it becomes hard to make a business case for running a node, opening a channel, deploying capital, or setting up all of the infrastructure and operations for a business to support lightning without having some semblance of why they are doing it
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Whether "analysis" qualifies as "surveillance" depends on how the data is used.
Anyone is free read the veins of a tea leaf and make any claim they wish based on their findings.
And everyone else is free to build their business case based on their claim. Including the surveillance companies.
LNBIG has dozens of nodes too. So we're not that different ;)
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