How many people truly understand bitcoin as perfect money, or as perfect collateral today? Less than 1% for sure. Perhaps even 0.1%. So the other 99% have more weight for now.
I do believe there will come a time, where bitcoin is no longer viewed as ‘risk on’ by market forces, but the opposite. We’re not there yet sadly. Many companies still clamour for dollars during times of stress, and will sell anything else in their portfolio to get hold of them. That will continue until it loses more credibility with more people.
Price is probably irrelevant, to a certain extent, if we’re talking about a 30/-30% swing. When it’s a case of taking your wealth with you or not. For that reason, I agree with you that it is the perfect SoV during conflict… but don’t expect such volatility to disappear.
Should everything gap-down, with bitcoin holding steady or accruing value… that is the biggest advertising banner you could ever dream up or place in people’s eyeballs. At that point, perhaps someone could say the real road to hyperbitcoinisation is imminent.