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The most severe breakage will occur in developing nations where inflation will be outsourced (e.g Sri Lanka).
Countries that hold the majority sovereign debt of these failing developing nations will get hit hard (in Sri Lanka's case, China will get hurt - as well as Japan). From here, decreasing amounts of contagion will spread and find it's way back to the US. The US will be the best-worst option for investment so demand for the dollar will remain strong.
The US will come under political fire from geopolitical allies requesting the US to let up quantitative tightening; the US will oblige and will start laying down the framework for th next recession through more doveish monetary and fiscal policies.
My $0.02
To answer your question more directly: I think that there will be a failure in Alternative Lending markets within the US (which have grown to represent ~35% of all unsecured lending). A bunch of PE firms heavily invested in the space will get crushed
Great answer, thank you!
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