The West is stuck in the inflation trap. The commodity price index is essentially a derivative of China's import activities, which in turn are massively stimulating their economy. We see in the price indices that the reflation phase is in full swing, commodity prices are rising on all fronts and the Chinese are struggling to get the economy up to a 5% growth target. We must therefore assume that more economic stimulus will come and that the inflation rate may rise further. This is a disaster, especially for the eurozone, the weakest player on the geopolitical chessboard in terms of resources. Here, the central bank is faced with the task of either rescuing the weakening currency, or of boosting public finances with more and more newly printed money. In any case, this problem of commodity price inflation cannot be solved by monetary policy without causing considerable damage to the labor market and the economy.
21 sats \ 2 replies \ @Cje95 15 Apr
Another issue I was reading is that China is pouring money into not being so driven by its traditional exports and instead the big buzzwords of today like EVs, batteries, and renewable energy in general and so they are able to dump into Europe and the US to kill off our industries as we have seen with solar.
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Yes, that's what's happening, too. Wait for the tariffs...
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21 sats \ 0 replies \ @Cje95 15 Apr
Yeah US solar industries have said they are going to request them. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw wind turbine ones as well because of how GE and Siemens have been getting killed by China turbines
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21 sats \ 2 replies \ @nym 15 Apr
What are some possible outcomes of this dire outlook?
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27 sats \ 0 replies \ @Cje95 15 Apr
I see countries really trying to speed up reshoreing some of these industries as well to prevent Chinese dominance which will lead to more stimulus by central banks against each other (West vs China)
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Rising inflation and the competition between central banks to gaslight the public on currency stability to begin with
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