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15 sats \ 2 replies \ @zuspotirko OP 28 Jul 2022 \ parent \ on: China's International Debt Crisis bitcoin
I know about Ray Dalios book. It's a very interesting thought but there is no scientific proof for his claims whatsoever. (Reminds me of "Guns, Germs and Steel": very logical sounding argumentation and fascinating thoughts - but where is the statistical proof my dude?)
Well of course there's no scientific proof. The scientific process requires repeatable experimentation under consistent conditions. You can't test an economy, no less a country repeatable with no changes to culture or anything more than a single time. This is why economics in general is considered as soft science and why arguments are so intense.
All it even can ever be is conjecture, but the reason its the best conjecture we have, is that it is conjecture based on historical tendencies, which we know that all historical instances are not of the same circumstances, cultures, or technologies.
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Repeatable might be an issue, that's true. But when one can claim the same numbers for pre-columbian americas, some african tribes and medival south-east india it would be much more convincing that it a constant about humanity.
IIrc Ray Dalio claims empires last 250 years. Why not 150 or 350? Is this roughly true for Quing China? Is it roughly true for for Cahokia? Or is it only for Dutch Empire, British Empire and Colonial Spain? A sample size of <10 is not a good indicator period - let alone if pre-modern age is even applicable at all.
I would be much more convinced if there was at least a large statistical analysis which he could have done with Wikipedia and Excel.
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