The model suggests Bitcoin's price hinges on its scarcity, gauged by the stock-to-flow ratio, comparing the amount in circulation to newly mined coins. Higher ratios signify greater scarcity, akin to gold's historical average of 66. After Bitcoin's third halving, its ratio doubled, enhancing its scarcity.
Meanwhile, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust's recent halving, losing 300k BTC since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, may have a more immediate negative impact on Bitcoin's price.