First up, I must confess that my advice about not posting about price action of BTC didn’t hold weight at all during the halving. Unless you have been living in a cave, you couldn’t have helped but notice the flurry of SN posts ushering in Block 840,000. Plenty of chatter about why transactions were more expensive than expected. Probing of reactions - are you going to sleep or join the viewing party?
Ordinarily, I would have felt delighted to be privy to the hive of activity on SN. It never feels old to belong to a community that is greater than yourself, and great memories are made swapping opinions and making predictions - fast and furious style - on an online platform. The Sensei v1.0 would have gladly jumped on the bandwagon to get his fill of the excitement.
But I’m now Sensei v2.0. The newly improved Sensei who doesn’t bat his eyelids when it comes to spending his sats on gift cards and bills. The halving should have captured my imagination, especially since it typically leads to a price surge some time later. However, I was refreshingly unperturbed by this significant milestone. I didn’t even bother to find out exactly the website(s) that would allow me to view the halving. I was decidedly nonchalant about it.
I think now that I have gotten used to spending sats, my focus has shifted from when will Bitcoin pump? to how do I develop more reliable sources of stacking sats?. SN has been great, but I shouldn’t be placing all my eggs in one basket. I should buckle down and create a course on emeralize. Or aim for the moon and come up with my podcast on Fountain. The thing is, I’m so preoccupied with the art of stacking sats that the halving failed to occupy cognitive space. I think it’s a good thing. Because it brings the focus back to the individual - just do my own thing and stick to the plan.
How was your halving experience like?
I slept more than usual because of work plus the driver license plus a hackathon plus some other things. I saved some money to buy more during the days before and after the halving but I expected more drawdown, so I bought less bitcoins than expected. Shit.
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Anon? What year do you think it is?
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For me it was a party. Felt like a new years celebration. Like Christmas for the religion of Satoshi. Sacred. Auspicious. Awe.
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Bitcoin working just fine and cryptosensei living life just fine. The way it should be.
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It's absolutely normal and it will be normal next time as well. Bitcoin is also normal but many people make it look like opposite.
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Since I believe the Efficient Markets Hypothesis is a good approximation of economic reality, I'm inclined towards downplaying the role of highly predictable events.
I did enjoy the halving, though, as a sort of Bitcoin New Years.
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How does a market price in unknown demand?
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It does it very poorly, based on expectations. My opinion was just that nothing should happen price-wise at the halving, because it would have happened in advance of the halving.
There will be some effects of the halving, but they'll play out as people realize there were things they didn't appreciate about it.
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Agree with that but as we saw with the etfs. The event occurring was priced in but the consensus did not have them buying 275k coins in the first 3 months so that was most certainly not priced in. Just like the event of the halving is priced in but the effect of issuance being cut in half cannot be priced in because we don't know what market participants will do.
If the markets were truly efficient Bitcoin's USD price would be in the millions right now. We know what issuance will look like for the next 116 years, no need to guess, and we can assert that the USD will devalue at a rate greater than new supply will be issued. Compound that variance over 116 years and you get a lot of fiat price increase just based on the USD losing value.
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It's definitely quite a tension in my mind, balancing EMH and my personal valuation of Bitcoin. What I'd say is that it's going to be new information that moves markets. The tricky part of that is trying to grapple with how poorly understood Bitcoin is by the public.
"New information" might be stuff we've all known for a while, but most people don't.
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The market is still broadly pricing Bitcoin as a speculative, high growth tech type of asset. So, yes most market participants don’t understand bitcoin.
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This is the way.
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I was enjoying time with friends and just realised the following morning about the halving. Best way to celebrate things is sharing with others.
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