Yes, I can imagine a scenario where layer 1 can't support the massive need for channel opens and closes. It's possible LN will choke on its own success and we will have to come up with a different L2 which uses L1 in a significantly more efficient manner.
But I'm also aware of many developments that will reduce the stress on L1 by LN. For example, I recently tested opening 3 channels across 3 nodes with one transaction. Batching this way is already an improvement. Taproot and future soft forks will reduce transaction sizes too. There are also ideas like channel factories. I'm also excited about the idea of LN on side-chains, like Liquid. We could have a system where many LN networks operate together with submarine swaps. So you could be running an LN node on the Liquid side-chain and pay a merchant who runs a node on proper Bitcoin, and we're all using the same SATs.
I see that problem of onboarding billions into LN. I even think it my be even harder to create your own channel (there may be channel factories but It will still be difficult for a person to open her own channels). That is why I am just creating channels with everyone, leaving them with 10-25% on my side, and using the rest for more chsnnels. Those open channels might be useful since it is empty LN capacity that might be able to fill or lease in the future.
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LN on Liquid sounds interesting. Finally easy mode wallets like Breeze and Phoenix could have the option to start with receiving just a small tip. That would make them much more user-friendly. Actually why aren't they doing it?
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