In a recent report, the Institute of German Economy (IW) has forecasted a stagnation in Germany's economic performance for the current year. While major economies like France, Italy, the United States, Japan, and China anticipate growth, Germany seems to be lagging behind in its recovery.
According to the IW, Germany is projected to experience a stagnation in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), contrasting with China's 4.5% growth, 2.0% for the US, and 0.75% each for France and Italy.
Meanwhile, the German Chamber of Industry and Commerce (DIHK) has called for reforms to alleviate the economic strain as business insolvency rates surpass pre-crisis levels. The DIHK anticipates a further increase in insolvency figures, emphasizing the ongoing challenges faced by businesses and the absence of relief measures from the government.
Addressing the recent decline in production figures, the Institute for Macroeconomics and Economic Research (IMK) deemed it expected and sees a gradual economic recovery underway. IMK Chief Sebastian Dullien noted a February surge, particularly in construction, hinting at potential setbacks. However, February's figures have been slightly revised downward, indicating a sluggish but discernible recovery trend.
Despite a 1.0% increase in production in the first quarter, Carsten Brzeski, ING's Chief Economist for Europe, remains disheartened by the state of the German industry. Brzeski highlights persistent challenges in demand for German industrial goods and stagnant inventory adjustments. He notes a decline in capacity utilization since the onset of the conflict in Ukraine, with industrial production still lagging approximately 8% behind pre-pandemic levels. While Brzeski acknowledges the end of the cyclical downturn, he cautions that challenges persist, despite a resurgence in optimism.