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170 sats \ 0 replies \ @grayruby 8 May \ parent \ on: Get Ready for Weaker Growth and Higher Inflation. The Consensus Was Wrong. econ
Indirectly. All our biggest customers were commercial property managers so I understand the business better than most but I don't want to purport to be an expert.
The sense I have gotten from the people I know who know this stuff is taking an old shopping mall and demolishing it and building new residential on the site is much easier than repurposing a 30 story office tower in the city. To elvis' point the plumbing, hvac and electrical on each floor would need to be changed to accommodate individual units. You have fire/sprinkler systems that would need to be changed as well.
Anything is possible but does the cost/challenges/time required make it feasible is another question. I think we need more pain in commercial real estate and more time for this to be the route developers go.
My guess is these buildings need to switch hands a couple times before owners decide to go the redevelopment route. Need a couple iterations of new owners giving it "the old college try".
But like with anything humans will figure out better, more efficient, more cost effective ways to redevelop over time so I do think we will see some of this occur over the coming decades, especially if AI changes the job landscape as much as many people think it will. Between remote work and AI, we may be past the peak for commercial offices in large cities.