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1B txn per year
So 500M channel opens + 500M channel closes and no other onchain activity....still doesn't seem like enough?
Enough for what?
If you buy into the 8BN framing it's not a serious conversation, it becomes a divisibility issue long before it's ever a blockspace bottleneck. Dust will always be dust.
Just as there's not 8BN houses, 8BN refrigerators, or 8BN cars... there's not 8BN custodians. Families share things... nodes will be among those things: Lightning.Pub
Enough for what?
To act as a global MoE
What do you think the likely maximum number of active users BTC can support now (with batching and LN)?
100M individual active users?
Global MoE doesn't have a hard number, so you're speculating
How is a user defined? A lightning channel? Could batch a few billion over 5~ year hyper growth
But that assumes there's even that many people with assets
Reality is there's no technical ceiling in sight, it's a socio-economic ceiling of the golden billion who largely own equity and not money
Depends on your definition of onboarding the world
Your math is also wrong, we can open a billion lightning channels per year with existing batching