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Where are we at?

Today we’ll be taking a look at the MVRV Z-Score.
This metric simply compares the market value to the realized value.
  • Market Value (Market cap): current price of Bitcoin multiplied by the circulating supply.
  • Realized Value: the value of all coins at the price they were last moved.
A market top (red zone) is categorized by market value being significantly higher than the realized value.
A market bottom (green zone) is categorized by market value being significantly lower than the realized value. (also the best time to scoop up cheap Bitcoin)
The easiest way to use this metric is to think about it as a gauge of where we currently are in the cycle.
Since the cycle bottom in November 2022, MVRV has been rallying. With some dips along the way of course.
Currently it’s at 2.53 (Two weeks ago it was at 2.07)
This puts MVRV in-between the green and red zones.
Meaning we’re roughly in the middle of the cycle.
We’ve still got a long way to go before Bitcoin’s deemed “overvalued” by this metric.
Expect this metric to drastically rise over the next few months.
Is this standard deviations from the long-term logarithmic trend line?
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Yes. Although they aren’t my numbers.
Just my two cents.
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It definitely seems like the volatility is declining (as expected), so I doubt we'll see 20x - 100x swings anymore.
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I’m not sure how I feel about it. Or, how I should feel about it.
On one hand -stability
On the other -less volatility means less chance for cheaper BTC. I’ve been lump sum buying the dips for as long as I have had Bitcoin.
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