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10 sats \ 5 replies \ @freetx 25 May \ parent \ on: The Paradox of Bitcoin Adoption bitcoin
Nah. Download the daily (or even monthly) data and run some analysis on it. Volatility has decreased.
Here is 30 days daily price of Bitcoin 10 years ago and over most recent month.
Volatility is down across all metrics.
https://m.stacker.news/32559
Your correlations will not be correct as long as you keep comparing cherry-picked convenient points. Use the exact same criteria of that sheet to compare the periods of Sep-Nov-2018 with Sep-Nov-2022 and your conclusion should be that even after 4 years of continued adoption volatility did nothing but to worsen unbearably.
Further, let's be conservative and take only M1 (we should take M3). M1 is currently at 18.000.000.000.000. Bitcoin market cap is currently at 1.362.490.742.418 , which is more than 10 times less. Remember, this is only M1, immediate liquidity. This means that bitcoin still haves room for anywhere between more than a 1000% of volatility all along the path of replacing that M1 right now, not taking into account how much it will increase in the future.
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compare the periods of Sep-Nov-2018 with Sep-Nov-2022
Still less volatile comparing those two 90 day time-frames.
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Your results say that those periods where AS volatile, even after 4 years and increased adoption, proving my point. If we keep this method of cherry-picking, lets consider only Sep-Oct-2018 to Sep-Nov-2022 and the result is a decrease in stability.
And let's not forget the 1000% instability range still at the gates if adoption progresses, hence entering the paradox territory yet again. If you agree that bitcoin is poised for a 10x increase in the next years, you can't at the same time think that it will be increasingly less volatile, that's an oxymoron
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I agree, yet it's a variation within so small margins that for practical purposes there is no difference. And yet once again, comparing Sep-Oct-2018 to Sep-Nov-2022 will show a decrease in stability. No conclusion over the nature of the problem can be made by cherry-picking and sticking to purism over pragmatism. If I augment your salary from 1000,0001 to a 1000,0003 , and then from 1000,0003 to 1000,0030 , and I tell you that you have experimented an augmentation rate of 10x (yourwelcome) I'm quite sure that the argument you are using now will suddenly stop having any significance to you.
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