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That’s what I figured from MiddleWay’s comment.
Still, someone should be able to greatly improve their odds compared to my 1/1,000 if they put some thought into it.
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Being off by 1ms is going to hurt
Fortunately it's just 10k sats... for now...
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One could collect measurements of the time you hit reply vs the timestamp that shows up to find out how early you need to be but there is jitter, clock skew and drift so I think it would still be mostly random.