I think it comes down to someone's definition of "success" for the project.

Success could mean anything from "new global reserve currency" to "tick-tock, next block".

Likewise, "failure" could mean anything from "a cataclysmic event that stops new blocks being mined" to "capital gains tax triggered when exchanging for goods".

Just depends what you're achieving/hoping to achieve with BTC. Most are here to get rich (or avoid getting poor slowly). But many are just as thrilled to self custody and chill.