This is just the beginning of an attack on privacy. We see that the USDC as centralized has to follow the sanction. BTC has the conjoin market, I don't know if they can do that on coinjoin?
I don't think they can do that against JoinMarket. But they could blacklist addresses that receive mixed coins (CoinJoin tx are very recognizable).
However, CoinSwap is being developed. This would be a way to unnoticeably swap your coins on-chain. CoinSwap tx would look just like regular tx.
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I think we can use Lightning to escape the blacklist of on-chain addresses. We can open a chanel and send btc through lightning or send on-chain btc to muun wallet and send out through lightning. Since the lightning receiver will not know the origin of the btc so the blacklist will not work.
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send out through lightning
In this case the provider will refuse to do submarine swap.
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IMHO, Tornado Cash was sanctioned not because of its tumbling function per-se, but because hacking groups were using it massively to launder eth or eth tokens. And again that was because most hacks were/are made in ethereum and eth-like shitty vulnerable protocols or bridges. Not to mention all those lending website disasters.
On a side note, since most protocol-level developments in Bitcoin are decentralized and carefully made/reviewed, I don't see that many hacks happening on btc.
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