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If we learn anything from the '90s failed eCash/Cyberbuck system that was developed by David Chaum's company DigiCash Inc, it is that an open protocol will always outsmart one company's speed and ability to innovate.
So Lightning with its open platform and no clear "leadership" (for want of a better word) will probably keep outpacing Liquid with it's closed development.
I'd say they're two very different beasts, serving different use cases. Clear leadership / direction is also a big benefit when it comes to development.
Lighting for instant / free / open payments
Liquid for large, private, regulated transactions and instruments
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