Two very old, often ineloquent white men will get into a lengthy argument in Atlanta on Thursday night — and, quite possibly, change the course of American history.

Some may doubt that the first debate of the 2024 presidential election has such high stakes. There are indeed many reasons to think that this week’s oratorical showdown between Joe Biden and Donald Trump will be of no real consequence.

For one thing, some academic research suggests that presidential debates have little to no impact on election outcomes. A 2019 paper from economists at HEC Montréal and Harvard Business School tried to gauge the electoral relevance of 56 debates televised during 31 election seasons in the US, Canada, and five other countries. To do this, they analyzed data from surveys that asked voters whom they supported shortly before or after the debates, and then contacted those same voters after the election to find out whom they ultimately backed. The researchers found that, across all political systems they studied, there was no evidence that debates led undecided voters to settle on a candidate, or other voters to switch allegiances.

... read more at vox.com