Eurozone Industry Faces Severe Downturn \ stacker news ~econ

pull down to refresh

869 sats \ 14 comments \ @TomK 1 Jul econ

The Eurozone is in recession. Despite aggressive government spending and debt accumulation, the industrial sector is experiencing a deepening crisis. Years of overregulation, centralization of decision-making in Brussels, and disastrous energy policies have led to a stark reality: companies are looking to invest anywhere but the Eurozone under these conditions.

S&P Global reports that the Eurozone's industrial sector showed significant weakness in June, marking the steepest production decline since the start of the year. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the sector fell to 45.8 from 47.3 in the previous month. This is below the 50-point threshold that indicates growth, signaling a contraction instead.

Most countries surveyed reported ongoing industrial struggles. Greece remained the highest in the PMI rankings, although it too hit a six-month low. Growth slowed in Spain and the Netherlands, while conditions deteriorated further in most other countries, with Italy being a notable exception to the accelerated decline.

view all related items

154 sats \ 3 replies \ @0xbitcoiner 1 Jul

Economic Outlook Eurozone Q3 2024: Growth Returns, Rates Fall

Key Takeaways

Lower energy prices have enabled the eurozone economy to return to growth and the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut rates. We expect a return to potential growth by 2025, with inflation at 2% by mid-year.

This would permit the ECB to cut rates by 25 basis points each quarter until the deposit rate bottoms out at 2.5% in the third quarter of 2025.

We have revised our growth forecast for Spain upward to reflect rising productivity, increased manufacturing, robust household balance sheets, and rapid disinflation, among others.

The risks associated with a divergence between the monetary policies of the ECB and the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), political uncertainties in Europe, and deteriorating economic relations with China have intensified since our last projections in March 2024.

These risks could affect business and investor confidence, financial stability, and the smooth transmission of the ECB's monetary policy to the eurozone economy. They could also translate into lower growth and higher inflation.

https://m.stacker.news/37792 https://m.stacker.news/37793 https://m.stacker.news/37794

https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/240624-economic-outlook-eurozone-q3-2024-growth-returns-rates-fall-13155488

32 sats \ 2 replies \ @TomK OP 1 Jul

sorry, but all growth forecasts by economists and state institutes have been steadily revised downwards in recent years. if you discount the massive government spending program, the eurozone has been in recession for a long time. and that cannot change under the conditions we find here. the eurozone is losing massive amounts of capital abroad and that is an indicator that cannot be overstated

52 sats \ 1 reply \ @0xbitcoiner 1 Jul

predictions are worth what they are, they are just predictions. Only time will tell. Maybe the shake-up in France will change something.

32 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK OP 1 Jul

the problem with these forecasts is that, as already mentioned, they are published by state-paid agents. these agents represent the narrative of the respective government and thus lead the public by the nose. this results in a considerable misallocation of capital and political mistakes are also repeatedly initiated in this sense.

86 sats \ 2 replies \ @Coinsreporter 1 Jul

I wonder how they infuse demand in the markets? What I see on MSM is a praise for PMI except some smaller groups are the only ones that are telling the reality.

11 sats \ 1 reply \ @TomK OP 1 Jul

I'm not sure if I understand your question correctly, but normally it simply works via false reports, downstream corrections, embellished forecasts, etc. This creates positive narratives, and the actual economic situation is no longer discussed

42 sats \ 0 replies \ @Coinsreporter 1 Jul

You surely understood. You're right.bingot my answer. Thanks

63 sats \ 0 replies \ @riberet19 1 Jul

We have what we deserve...

42 sats \ 0 replies \ @BitByBit21 1 Jul

Well, well, well if it isn't the consequences of their own actions...

42 sats \ 3 replies \ @Satosora 1 Jul

I remember Switzerland took action, did it end up helping or is too soon to know?

20 sats \ 2 replies \ @TomK OP 1 Jul

you mean by lowering key interest rates? these are all just short-term eyewashes. in the long term, the market sets interest rates.

42 sats \ 1 reply \ @Satosora 1 Jul

Yes. Did it help, or are the benefits already gone?

20 sats \ 0 replies \ @TomK OP 1 Jul

Nope

42 sats \ 0 replies \ @NRS 1 Jul

The solution, from my perspective, apart from regional circumstances like the Russia-Ukraine war, is to strengthen economic cooperation among member states to enhance the internal market of the Euro.