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10 sats \ 6 replies \ @jeff 19 Aug 2022 \ on: Daily discussion thread
I can see a light at the end of the tunnel, for stopping the use of pricing BTC in USD.
The alternative, we should consider switching to, might be kWh.
How many kWh can BTC buy?
I get that this is local, and more challenging. But, that's our out. That's the path to making USD obsolete.
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Talk this through with me... using USD makes no sense to discuss the topic below.
  • 30-day Average Transactions Value is $2.519B USD == ~$919B USD / yr
  • Annual block reward subsidy is $7.72B USD
7.7 / 919 = 0.84%
At first glance, one could calculate, that in order to replace the "value" of the subsidy, the average transaction would have to pay a recommended 0.84% in order to keep the chain as secure as it is in 2023 after the block-subsidy runs out.
But that's not the full picture. The full picture depends on how much energy USD can buy (as well as how efficient the miner technology is).
If in 50 years, USD buys 20x less kWh in the future, and Bitcoin is worth 20x in USD-terms, and fees don't rise, then the chain will be way way way less secure than it is today.
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0 sats \ 2 replies \ @jeff 19 Aug 2022
Does anybody know where I can get a feed of local electricity rates by region?
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @nullcount 19 Aug 2022
https://eia.gov/electricity/state
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @kilianbuhn 19 Aug 2022
They also differ from provider to provider in every region
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0 sats \ 1 reply \ @moneroshill 19 Aug 2022
you're not going to make USD obsolete. this is a cope.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @jeff 20 Aug 2022
Not with that attitude.
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0 sats \ 0 replies \ @nullcount 19 Aug 2022
This method of calculation still uses USD as a common denominator between BTC and kWh.
Instead of asking "how many kWh can BTC buy", ask "how many kWh applied to a current gen ASIC can mine 1 BTC".
Example: 100 TH antminer s19 runs on 3.25 kW. In theory, it would take 6.17 years to mine a BTC (ignoring halvings, assume difficulty is constant). That's about 54,000 hours.
So 1BTC = (54,000hrs x 3.25kW) = 175,000 kWh = 175 megawatt hours = 7.29 megawatt days = 1.29 megawatt weeks
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