I know it's early in the period but is there something going on here?
Variance likely explains a good chunk of it.
Look at the 1 year or 3 year chart ... "hashrate" (which cannot be directly measured) does not go up or down in a smooth line.
Though many miners have said they are still adding capacity, and some rigs are now being energized for the first time after initial installation.
A 10% rise in difficulty at the next difficulty adjustment would not be all that surprising though.