Hack. If a coordinated global effort from governments to ban bitcoin was successful. If bitcoiners stopped caring about freedom and sound money, adoption, layer 2 development and only cared about getting rich in fiat terms. If a fork that inflates supply wins out. If the fee and block subsidy prove to be insufficient in the future to secure the network and a consensus is not reached to solve the issue.

I am sure I could come up with a few more. I am not suggesting these are likely by any means but they are some things that would at least cause me to reassess my thesis.