It will impose unbearable austerity on a population already laid low by stagnant per capita income over the past decade, a historic cost of living crisis and endemic political dysfunction. As witnessed in Kenya last month, it could spark a major social rebellion in the world’s fifth-largest country. Moreover, it will lead to deeper losses for creditors when the inevitable reckoning comes. When the dust settles, the already sullied image of the IMF in Pakistan could be in tatters. 

According to the IMF, for each of the next five years, Pakistan owes the world an average of $19bn in principal repayments, or more than half of its export revenues. It will also need a minimum of $6bn every year to finance even threadbare current account deficits forecasts, bringing total external financing needs to at least $25bn a year between now and 2029. Pakistan has foreign exchange reserves of less than $9.5bn.